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Your World With Neil Cavuto

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  FOX News    Your World With Neil Cavuto    News/Business. Money tips  
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    October 19, 2012
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that would be like the dow tumbling 3,000 points today. a sell off so fast and so furious that even the most mighty financial firms could not escape although many of the same firms with their fancy computers and their clever "sell" againsts thought they could. in the end, they could not. there was a lot unrest in europe, and growing worries over building deficits here, back then. it does sound similar to today, but, first, as i saw it then, as a much younger and thinner reporter for pbs, assessing the crash the experts said could not happens but did. >> to the end the analysts are refusing to mention that word "crash" to describe what is going on, instead, they lock at it as a correction that still has to work itself out. what they do not know and worry about is how far down that correction really has to go, how long it will take and how many more people will be hurt in the
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process before the market decides to turn around if it decides to turn around. >>neil: that was then. you don't think it can happen now? i'm not so sure. times change but repeating the same mistakes never change like putting faith in fancy computers and technology to cushion the blow. in 1987 it was portfolio insurance, that protected traders from losses that only ended up accelerating the losses. that was then. a fraction of the market mechanisms that fancy computers that claim to provide the same efficiencies and guarantees now, and we all have these things, complex trading swaps and it was germany fighting the fed back then, and today, it is all of europe, fighting, well,
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themselves. and the debt barely a worry creating millions of jobs under ronald reagan but growing concern about a congress that was spending all that extra tax revenue coming in. and then some. like scandal, something called iran contra and now benghazi right now. there are big differences between 1987 and now. this is less of me than, a lot more of that debt now. back then, china was a rising star. now we are the ones looking like a shooting star. back then, we got off the bring, the depression folks feared never came. today, we are weeks away from another brink and at the least the recession is now unavoidable. still thing it can't happen? take it from someone who was there. they said the same thing back then, as well. we are all over it now. with ted who lived through it, ron paul who fear as repeat, and
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a former chairman who can prevent it. we begin with the man called "teddy." you were this that day. what was it like in. >> it was the most scary day i have spent on the trading floor, in approximately 43 years. there have been more emotional days after 9/11 but that was the day that was the most scary and most closely-related to a panic i have never seen on the trading floor. >>neil: ahead of that through the heights the august and through october there was a lot of blood letting and we are stumbling over that period of time. but it got punctuated and fast and i like to think a lot of the big hits we see in the markets usually come on you when you least expect it or they are punctuating a trend that everyone is seeing. how do you describe it? >>guest: well, they happen for reasons that we do not expect.
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there is no rhyme or reason when it is going to happen. if they did, obviously, if they rang a bell we would be warned and we would act accordingly. it usually comes after periods where people let their guard down, periods of excess whether individual stocks or in the stock market as a whole but we are simply have people seeing the glass as perhaps only half full and don't, throw caution to the wind and do not, just don't have any sense of equalibrium. the stock market is as risky now as it was then. >>neil: is it more risky now in are we whistling beyond the graveyard? we are getting cocky, you have a few companies report lousy
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numbers, microsoft and intel and now mcdonald's but it is fought -- not a bad. what do you say? >>guest: the warnings started in the first quarter of this year and for whatever reason the market and investors alike have ignored all the warnings. yet, they continue to come and they so far in this earnings reporting period, that does not necessarily mean that the rest of the third quarter earnings are going to be disappointing but we have set ourselves up for a lost disappointment in terms of the earning but i don't think the market is set up. stocks if the most part are priced for perfection. in february and march of 2009 and where the dow and s&p 500 is and where it is now, we have had dramatic moves. >>neil: double. double. doubled. >>guest: we have doubled. the economy has not been good. the euro zone is a mess.
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asia is slowing down. yes, corporate earnings have got were better but a lot of that better corporate earnings comes from cutting costs and not growing the top line. until will very if, ted, i appreciate the expertise over this quarter century. thank you, ted. now, ron paul remembers the crash, and marvels that the folks who refuse to see the conditions for bigger crash if we do not address our underlying financial situation. you have warned that washington has been dilly-dallying in the face of issues we cannot put off but it does. how bad anyone can conceive of. i am fascinated with the chart on nasdaq in the last several years, that is a mere blip, a
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blip. if you look at it, people are beyond 1987, it was a bull market correction that turned out to be minor. i remember when that happened, i thought if this is a bull market correction, how big will the bull market go? it was gigantic. it does not happen immediately but up until 2000 i work on the assumption the real bear market in stocks started in the year 2000. if you go to the value of any index it is all lower than in the year 2000. no one made any real money since 2000. i think they will go down continuously but the big crash is not necessarily before us because i think the crash has already occurred and we are in a bear market for stocks. >>neil: but we have doubled from where we were four years ago according to the obama
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administration. the fact of the matter is, we have come off of our worst levels. you say this cannot go -- you cannot detach it from washington. >>guest: or detach it from monetary policy because the bubbles come from the fell reserve which are encouraged by excess spending, excessive spending encourages the fed to create extra money. they cannot tell where the money will go. often it goes to stocks. sometimes it goes to houses and sometimes to the pockets of bangers and back to the fed. they cannot predict that. >>neil: that could set up another art official bubble with bonds and interest rates if that occurred? >>guest: we live with it. it has been made worse with the
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moral hazards of the federal reserve, but the plunge protection team established in 1987. they very active, they remain very active in 2008 and look what they did behind-the-scenes and how they spent trillions and trillions, so, people are thinking, well, they will take care of us. but that just allows the disportion to get much greater. the disportion is there. >>neil: the cure is worse than the illness? >>guest: on the short run they do not want the cure. on the long run what will come is a lot worse than taking the medicine we need right now. >>neil: thank you, congressman. we will have the congressman's son trashing everything his father just said. no, i don't think so, at 8:00 people tonight on fox business network. he says we have to get tough in washington, rand paul, tonight,
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his precipitation could unsettle you but he says we have no choice. to wall street player, whether this time it is not a fancy program doing too much that tanked the market but washington, dc. >>guest: there are parallels to worry about relative to 1987. the deficit and trade balances were expanding, you had tension between israel and the neighbors, and we have that today with iran and syria and libya and others. we had a president with gridlock with the congress. deja vu. >>neil: does it all feed into traders? is there a point they say "enough." >>guest: if you go back, they had the portfolio insurance which was hedging and inhas the same hedge there are no edges. when you have a sill off like --
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sell off, the underlying derivatives they divorce each other from what they are hedging. i believe tuesday, the day after black monday, there was a more dangerous situation. the cash market value of the dollar was 1,700 and futures was 1,300, a 400-point gap. what happened, several people on wall street primarily from merrill lynch called ronald reagan and convinced he had to compromise on the budget. the new york stock exchange was going to close on tuesday through grasso it did not. he was the contact. j.p. morgan based on relaxing of some of the rules at exchange starting buying back the stock. that morning --. >>neil: that triggered ibm and microsoft. >>guest: the money opened up 200 points but there was a gap between the futures and the
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current market the crash market that no one had seen anything like it and it started to close, good news came out and the following day, on wednesday, smart money came back to the market. >>neil: here is my worry about this environment today, and everyone had my ridiculous hair style so take a chill pill, the one thing i noticed now we have a lot more computers we have a lot fast are trading. we can move trillions at push of a button and there can be bad trades or an early earnings announcement leaked to soon, but it is a faster market condition so it can be exaggerated. >>guest: there are a couple of positives, you have the circuit breakers grass so -- grasso put
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in. it is a cooling off period. >>neil: we would not see something like last time. >>guest: your point on all of this, being computer generated, a lot of the young turks who were creating them do not understand without liquidity they do nut work. that can exacerbate the downfall. on the positive side, margin balances are nowhere near where they were in 1987 because with a panic sell people run for the exit and exacerbates the downfall. corporations have more cash than ever. >>neil: always good to see you, joe grano. >> coming up. >> unfortunately the bullet train to you. >>neil: what? what? remarks that put the shackles comments to shame.
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>> ryan has written a book called "young guns" with two other fellows, members of the house of representatives, republican members. you had, unfortunately, the bullet train to you. >>neil: no, how do you unshackle yourself from this one? joe biden creating a stir saying the g.o.p. has bullets amendmented at you, an economic plan that would do more harm than good but mike huckabee says this has inflicted far more harm on the ticket. >>governor huckabee: well, it is an image that the democrats cannot stand if republicans say it. now they use it. the question is, will the standard be held to joe biden that would have been held if paul ryan used the same term. >>neil: you are the only one
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using that. >>governor huckabee: and you are the only ones who will. if paul ryan said we are aiming, for president obama or we have joe biden in our crosshairs i can assure you --. >>neil: that like the sarah palin thing. >>governor huckabee: i think it is silly to get wrapped up about these things because it is a metaphor and a device that is not outlandish. he did not say he would inflict bodyily harm and republicans are strong on the second amendment. >>neil: governor is there something to the democrat argument, you think it is not great now, but it will be awful if the republicans take over and the vice president, using more colorful language but that is what they say the you want do return to them? it was worse with them. >>governor huckabee: gas prices were half what they are now. the average household lost
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$4,300 of earning power. >>neil: the economy was so bad back then, that begs the issue, the only way to get back to that is through what? >>governor huckabee: all i heard of anything more ridiculous cnn tried to plain why obama got three more minutes than romney because he talked slower. >>neil: is that what they said? >>governor huckabee: he said he talked slower and paused more often. so we will redistribute the time, even, and the wealth. >>neil: in the next debate, all foreign policy, but do you think economic policy should come in? after what is happening with the economy and debt as a national security issue, is that what mitt romney has to do? >>governor huckabee: it is fair to point out there is an economic aspect of foreign policy, not just how much we invest in other countries but there is an impact on our country if foreign countries are falling apart it affects our
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economy. what is doing on in europe is affecting us. >>neil: thank you, governor. his ratings are off the chart, by the way. this poll that shows romney always had an edge on economic policy and now foreign policy? my insurance rates e probably gonna double. but, dad, you've got... [ voice of dennis ] allstate. with accident forgiveness, they guarantee your rates won't go up just because of an accident. smart kid. [ voice of dennis ] indeed. are you in good hands?
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>>neil: governor romney nearly erasing the president's lead on foreign policy a month following the benghazi murders coming at the c.i.a. delivers a separate blow to the administration. we are getting word in 24 hours after the benghazi attack a top c.i.a. official told the state department that the attack had terror written all over it so
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why did the state department blame the attack on online video and stick with that story for days? and weeks in bret baier has been digging into this getting ready for a special. >> why do you think the request was denied? >> i don't know. i don't know. i don't know why. i cannot imagine why. i cannot fill in that blank. i think this are those that know and that is part of what was trying to come out in the congressional investigation. >>neil: it was weird, what did you discover? or is it too early? >>bret: that was an emotional interview on capitol hill and in this interview he reveals a lot. he was a personal friend of the ambassador and the head of security that was pulled out just a month before the attack. what we have learned today is
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that the around sent out a number different cables, cables to the state department, that were very detailed, about security on the ground. about do months before, he said islamist extremist in libya was rising and the al qaeda flag was popping up all over the area at self facilities and government buildings and training facilities. a month before he said that a series of violent incidents has been organized and not just haphazard but targeted "but we have seen not random crimes of opportunity but targeted and discriminate attacks" and on 9/11, this is ambassador stevens he write as cable in which he writes he is "concerned about security, the growing problems in security in benghazi and growing frustration with libyan security forces too weak to keep the country secure." he would be murder add few hours
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after signing that cable to the state department. the lt. colonel talks about that and gets emotional in the interview. take another listen to a different clip from the interview. >> i can tell you are emotional about it. the ambassador was killed, first one since 1979. he was your friend. >> he is the president's personal representative. it is a huge thing to have a loss like that. i grieve for his loss and the loss of the nation. >>reporter: we reported on fox accept 19 that intelligence folks said in 24 hours that they thought it was terrorism, they in the it al qaedaback-linked groups that were behind this attack, and they sent that up the chain. what was happening today is that the associated press and other organizations saying the station chief on the ground said that and that is where the reports
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going today. the disconduct with the state department is, really, the question. >>neil: the president in the last debate absolved himself of any contradiction by saying, look, i called an act of terror and they hang it on that. mitt romney was trying to say that is very different than essentially calling it an act of terrorism. it sounds like it is much bigger than this. >>bret: there are two sides, one is the security which well detail that this government knew extensively. there is no way they didn't know, not only in the ambassador's cables but the incident in all of a spectrum of people and officials sending you will red flags from libya. that is one side of the story. the other side is the political side, describing what the president said in that debate,
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you have what he said on letterman about the tape, what he said on "the view," and messaging the video tame six times in the u.n. speech. you have what he said all along despite saying "acts of terror" at another campaign event about benghazi. the implication is that they were saying that it was a videotape and a protest that got out-of-control, a protest that was never there. >>neil: bret, it looks like one heck a special looking into this step-by-step situation, a timeline of what happened, not a right or left issue, bret baier right down the middle following the chain of events.
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on how it pans out. how things are versus how we feel. which wins? >>guest: well, look, both. in a sense. >>neil: what do you mean, they both win if what an answer. >>guest: it is friday afternoon. i have been beaten up a lot this week. as far as the dissatisfaction is concerned, that is fueling the republican base. democrats have to feel energized and forward looking about the economy so they look to good news, some of this is good news, obviously, on the lowering unemployment rates in the swing states. they have to be hopeful. they fine the hope in the new numbers. on the one side you is the historical average in gallup is 37 percent thinking the country
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is on right track so we are clearly a country that frequently looks and sees the glass being half empty. on the unemployment numbers, we are if that never-neverland where no one believes the new statistics. we are skeptical by nature and we are particularly skeptical at the height of a campaign. i don't thing they will have much impact when way or the other. >>neil: in the seven states leaving aside that the republicans run them, and i think all of them, mostly, do you see or do you get a sense that regardless of what they are hearing in the statistics that a lot of the states where you have seen the imemployment in states like ohio and florida, that is good enough? and that is something they are really dealing with and could be
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tipping their hat to the incumbent or to the republican party where there is a republican governor? >> to give you another very definitive answer, it is a bit of both. i would say on whole, people should down in a general election from too much new information they be skeptical, we are in the pleasure season and this is when everything is happy and things the get better. >>neil: in the last fine months of 1992, the recession had already ended and we were on our way out. we know month by the month the numbers were getting better and
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better and better. something like today but too little too late for george bush sr. so is that the same now? >>guest: you had a candidate in bill clinton who was superb candidate. president bush sr. fine fellow, he was actually ill during were of the 4th year of his term, he did not do well. he was not able to make his points. this was a guy you may remember named ross perot and he had a lot to do with that election result. you put those things together, it is a very different situation than today despite the weak attempt to compare that. >>neil: very good and i made it weaker by showing george sr.'s son. you think the good economic numbers we are seeing could or
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could caught in be good or bad for president obama? >>guest: they would be good if he made them an issue. something that surprised me about the election he has not made them an issue. your unemployment rate is two points below the nation average in ohio or virginia he could say two or three points below the nation's average but he has not done that. i'm not sure why but i think it was foolish on his part. >>neil: that was the only dinnive answer you gave me. but you are so brilliant. >>guest: one to a show. >>neil: professor, thank you very much my friend. always good to see you. bin laden could be dead but how is the president's foreign policy on life support?
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>>neil: back to the poll showing president obama's lead on foreign policy now could be evaporating after benghazi attack when he had a 15 point advantage over mitt romney and now it is down to four points. what do you think, bob? >> it is over. it is all pack up and go on vacation. it is over. >>neil: i appreciate you bringing the a game to the table. anyone else would save it. in your case, the great hit we calm "the five," why should you save that energy for me? >> when you have a couple weeks of news stories about benghazi it is going to get into the polling results but this is not a campaign about foreign policy but about the economy. all the foreign also stuff, the people positive do not like benghazi and think there was a
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coverup and all this stuff --. >>neil: it is the entire debate on monday. >> it will not. >>neil: i agree they will town the economy that is probably first the romney vote, and make it a national security issue and the romney folks see it as an urgent issue and the plight of our debt, et cetera, how does it breakdown? >> you put romney in china where he has exported jobs from the united states and then do you think romney has any foreign policy understanding of what is going on in the middle east? did president obama coming into office? >> no. >>neil: if you argue he has done great on phone policy and he knew nothing about it going in, maybe that is not the signature issue. >> well, it is not an issue that, let me put it this way, is romney going to lose on foreign policy? the answer is, no, unless he
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does another tour of foreign countries. >> he can do nothing right, and i am shocked if you admit it, you have a gifted sense of plumier, and last night, i was at the dinner and quoted both of these guys, they were great, but romney was, like, like bob newhart on steroids and that has far bigger impact. what do you say? >> i didn't get my invitation. >>neil: you are not important. >> no, i am not. >>neil: and i had a rented tux. >> did you wait a white tie? >>neil: no but i waited on tables. what do you make of the remarks? >> i thought romney was good. he is funny. he was, of course, no one is not funny at those things because you have a lot time to prepare.
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>>neil: how was richard nixon in 1960? >> the guy was a knee slapper. you could not beat him. when he told the blond jokes i method -- a blond was told most accidents happen a mile from your house and she moved. nasa what his best line. >>neil: you are almost as funny as you were with my buddy imus. >> i will tell you why i had to be on division talking about this poll if gallup for the last three days and it is sightly depressing. now, so that is something to do with it. >> we look at the far greater number ramifications and i don't like you just to slop me in with everyone else. >> have i ever done that? you would not fit any place else. you would not fit any place else and the dinner have it takes are
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probably down but i think that the idea that you can take the gallup poll and say that is it, i said yesterday as a joke, but --. >>neil: you are all overtime map. >> all over the map? coming from you, that is a compliment. >>neil: it is fine. i citizen that. we are both vulnerable. we node a group electronning hug. i know where you do your show and i will hug you. >> please bring your wife with you and could you bring me a steak. >>neil: it was lamb. it was lamb. i am not a fan of lamb. >> that because italians --. >>neil: here we go. that is enough. that is enough. always a pleasure. >> bring the gun, bring the canolli. >>neil: harry reid says mitt romney is a used car salesman. we tried for harry reid but he would not come on so we did one
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>>neil: let her rip. >> joe biden stands for everything that is fair and honest, a man of integrity. the man leading the republican ticket for president of the united states is like a used car salesman. have you ever known anyone that would do or say anything, like mitt romney? >> no, no. >>neil: there goes the used car salesman vote. harry reid comments not sitting
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well with my guest. mark is the owner of dealership employs 20 used car salesman. >>guest: it was insulting to the middle-class people who are honest, hard working, people with integrity who have families to feed and take care of. if you look at at the interestig result sale, used car sales people are here, congress, harry reid, we are here. and he being a part of congress, he ininsulted his -- he insulted his colleagues. >>neil: it was demeaning. >>guest: we are hard working honest, ethicalling middle class, talking about saying one tinge and doing another, saying what you have to, and he and the president say they want to help the middle class but they take cheap spots at the middle class and harry reid will say and do anything he has to, to get a vote for president obama. >>neil: but they are the
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ticket that so far, when it comes to who represents the interests of the middle class it is always the president and the vice president. now, the gap has narrowed the last month, but even though governor romney scored well on the economy, it is the middle class and who is looking out for the middle class, it is the president, harry reid and all these guys. >>guest: i disagree. it is the perception that harry reid and president obama are looking out for the middle class but the reality is, it is governor romney who will look after the middle class but take the proper steps. >>neil: you have been a battered business that is coming back and you were screwed by the whole auto shake down, do you see it coming back? >>guest: the economy? >>neil: yes, economy, car sales. we are told everything is getting better. >>guest: come to my place, speak to my employees. i asked a buy at the register of
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pepco, and he says, i am stuck, i am stuck here, and i am a graduate of college. i asked who he would vote for and he didn't know, i said.vote for obama and he says, you are right, people perceive obama is moving forward because of the spin but he has had four years and he cannot do it. >>neil: you are the first guy who tried to move voters at a pepco. >>guest: i do it all the time. it affects my business, what i do. i want to know what is happening. you cannot listen to obama. he will do or say anything to get another four years. romney will do the right thing. he has a track record of doing the right thing. he has been in business.
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>>neil: your argument is it cannot get worse and you think anyone can do better. >>guest: look, the president has had four years, where are we now? the gas prices are $4.50 a gallon? >>neil: mark, always good to see you. the end of the year train wreck is starting early. a lot earlier. 0t[h7
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>> neil: well, this just in. the warnings just keep rushing in. two of the largest manufacturers warning about the fiscal cliff. honeywell, g.e. raising concerns about gridlock and the negative impact it could have on pretty much the entire country. as both parties delay the crucial decisions. congressman elliott nagle, do you think we'll get a deal? >> i think bewill get a deal. we have no choice. >> i heard that before. >> i think congress needs to do its job.
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both parties need to do the job. find a meeting of the minds. i hope we do that. >> neil: part of that is awaiting election results. >> we're not scheduled to be in session until the week after election day. we can't do anything until then. we have a thanksgiving break. i suspect we will be in session -- >> neil: you have a lot of breaks. >> democrats said we didn't want to go home. we want to hand the problems before we went home. >> neil: don't go there congressman, i love you dearly. republicans in the senate want to stay and work on harry reid. no, we're done here. house democrats want -- >> okay. all right. if you say a deal is in, lame duck session has to do it. right? >> would they agree to let the rates expire for the wealthy?
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>> what is likely to happen, likely to be pushing it back a few months. i'm opposed to pushing it back to a great period. we have to stop kicking the can down the road. >> neil: argument is delaying it because of the economy and we're weaker than we were then. >> the sequestions ration is stupid. we had a -- see questions tration is a stupid idea. my position has been constant. >> neil: nowen is running away with it. >> i didn't agree with it. >> neil: you know it was agreed to and everyone signed on to it. i don't think they are going to honor it. >> everyone is saying oh, my god. republicans want cuts. >> you are the same. >> you're both locked on. we have to get together and budge. >> if romney is elected -- i'm going to listen and talk.
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>> the business leaders said the uncertainty. they are afraid to do anything. that hurts all of us. not just the democrats or republicans. we have to get together and find a meeting of the minds. >> i hope you're right. >> i predict we will. fair and balanced congressman. fine state of new york. rand paul tonight on fox business on why everything he said is wrong. is it? tonight on fox business. >> kimberly: hello. i'm kimberly guilfoyle with bob bob, eric bolling, dana perino and greg gutfeld. it's 5:00 in new york city. this is "the five." ♪ ♪ >> kimberly: president obama hasn't had time for a press conference to explain what happened in libya, but he did find time to sit down with jon stewart to talk about the attack. >> i would say even you would admit it was not the optimal response to the american people as far as us being on the same page. >> here is what i'll